Early opportunity and warnings

Göteborg 2010-04-30
Shipping Market Update - April 2010
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Göteborg 2010-03-01
Shipping Market Update - February 2010
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Göteborg 2009-12-15
Shipping Market Update - December 2009

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Göteborg 2009-10-05
Shipping Market Update - October 2009

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Göteborg 2009-06-09
Shipping Market Update - June 2009

Following the overall negative market trend most shipping markets have
fared bad, except for dry bulkers, where the freight rates have firmed.
China´s imports of coal and iron ore are again the driving force behind
this development. However, both dry market and the other markets are
threatened by the strong growth in supply, which is not going to be balanced
by the increased recycling. Further idling of tonnage can therefore be expected
and increased economic problems for many owners. The shipyards begin to
realize that for their own good, they must act more flexible than before in
terms of delivery conditions, including pricing of new vessels.

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Göteborg 2009-03-25
The shipping market update

After a precipitous fall in activity last autumn, many shipping markets have
registered their lowest freight rates for many years, waiting for demand to
start growing again. Some are going to wait longer than others, and
meanwhile the risks for further declines cannot be ruled out. Marginal
improvements have been registered in some markets, but they are likely to
be only temporary, considering the expected all-time high deliveries of new
vessels this year. A balanced rise in energy and non-energy commodity
prices could induce an increased demand for bulk transport of e.g. oil, gas,
coal and iron ore already this year, while transport of general cargoes is not
going to increase before consumers start spending again.)  

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Göteborg 2009-02-03

The shipping "super-cycle" ends in a shipping "super-bubble"!!

The very real differences between a normal business-cycle recession and a recession brought on by a financial crisis. That is one conclusion drawn from SAI´s Executive Meeting 2009. Another conclusion is that the shipping "super-cycle" will end in a shipping "super-bubble".

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Göteborg 2008-11-28

The economic trends remain negative, but....

All major economies registred lower growth in the third quarter and in the US, Euroland and Japan relative to the previouw quarters. This quarter is likely to see and negative growth of 4% or more in the UW. Growth is expected to decelerate further before recovering gradually in 2009.

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Göteborg 2008-08-18

Global Petroleum Market

Underlying world oil market fundamentals point to a better supply-demand balance with lower prices in the near term, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest short-term energy outlook (Aug. 12). But EIA also warned that "any weakness in oil prices could be minimal and short-lived" if demand grows more than expected or supplies are interrupted.
Following an early rally Aug. 11 in response to Russia's expanded military campaign in Georgia, crude futures fell to the lowest intraday price since May 1, closing below $115/bbl as traders focused on declining demand. The rebound in the dollar also play a role in the decline of oil price. Natural gas prices are also forecast to fall

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Göteborg 2008-06-26

The ordering trend is broken!

Falling number of orders in the past six months confirm that the sixyear trend of growing contracting numbers was broken already in the second half of 2007. The update is based on the Lloyd´s Register-Fairplay report "Shipbuilding Orders Monthly", which details the latest updates in contracting activity of ships larger than 1,000 Gt.

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Göteborg 2008-04-02

The world orderbook continues to build!!

Two years ago the orderbook comprised 5,882 ships, totalling 108M cgt. In 2006 it grew to 7,822 ships, equal to 141M cgt, given massive ordering and lower deliveries. Then came the record-breaking 2007 with 5,238 ships ordered corresponding to 90.2M cgt. In 2007 South Korea claimed 37% of the orders and China 35%. Japan took a modest 11% and Europe 9%. This pushed the current orderbook to a record 11,149 ships at 189.5M cgt. South Korea has 35% of the cgt and China is the runner up with 29%. Japan comes third with 16% and Europe fourth with 12%

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Göteborg 2008-01-24

A new era for ship recycling!

In 2007 we saw an increasing number of tankers being sold for recycling and conversions, while the number of dry bulk vessels decreased as a result of the historic high freight rate levels for this type of vessels. Now, with an orderbook totalling close to 500M dwt, deliveries in the next four years are expected to increase by 75% compared to the past four years. This is expected to affect the freight rates negatively. Together with the fact that the orderbook is 2.5 times larger than the existing fleet older than 20 years, and the high scrapping prices remain high, recycling is expected to increase by more than 50% in the next four years.  

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Göteborg 2007-08-23

Have the European Shipbuilding Industry's Orderbooks peaked?

The turnover within the European shipbuilding industry was according to CESA 13 billion euro in 2006. This was a 43% increase from 2005. The positive trend continued further in the first quarter this year with a 10% growth in turnover compared to the same period last year. A similar picture was recorded for maintenance, repair and conversion business with the turnover jumping by 20% in 2006. Although the number of orders declined last year, the value of new orders exceeded deliveries, which means that the orderbook increased 7% to 17 billion euros by the end of 2006, the highest figure ever. Data from LR-Fairplay shows that deliveries so far this year have exceeded new orders, which means that the orderbook might have peaked. Still, European shipyards are all booked in advance often into 2010 or even beyond, which puts further strain on the already tight supply resources. The development of the steel and other raw material markets are causing some concern for the CESA members, as well as the labour market, particularly for the supply of high-skilled workers.